Toluquenos calm, predict Calderon

I arrived in Toluca Friday morning to cloudy skies, and 45 degree weather. This city is the polar opposite of Acapulco, where I left last night with 77 degrees at midnight.

Last week when I would ask an Acapulqueno who would win Sunday´s election, the quick response was ¨AMLO, but they might try to steal the votes.¨

Today, I am asking the same question to Toluquenos. One taxi driver´s answer has been typical. He paused, trying to consider the possible scenarios (or maybe trying to size up my bias) and then slowly stated CAL DER ON.

When I ask why will Calderon win, the answers diverge, but most think that the minor party supporters are anti-AMLO and enough of them will switch to Calderon to make a difference. A few also cited last Sunday´s efforts by the Catholic Church.

Some Toluquenos will vote for Lopez Obrador, but there is not the wild enthusiasm of Acapulco, nor is there the paranoia about vote tampering. Similarly, I don´t see any real hatred of AMLO, more of a frustration and disgust that he is probably more of an old PRIista, a lot of phony promises designed to get power.

I think whoever wins, Toluquenos will calmly accept the results and get to work at 5 AM on Monday at the Chrysler plant, while Acapulquenos will react emotionally and use this as an excuse not to go to work for a few days, due to being overwhelmed by joyous ecstacy or righteous anger.

precarious role of the Catholic Church

There was a supplement in the local newspapers, a ten page insert sponsored by the Roman Catholic Church. Local bishops such as Franco here in Acapulco, and Cardinal Norberto in DF, and even Pope Benedict have spoken to the Mexican people with a cautiously worded message: go to the polls and vote your values. Under the Constitution of this country, clerics are severely limited in the political roles they may take. So, the church and bishops cannot say directly and clearly, Calderon SI, AMLO NO, but that is the gist of its efforts. Calderon is the clearest pro life candidate, and the rest waffle, except Mercado who is clearly pro-choice.

If the church succeeds in getting a fraction of the 80 percent of Mexicans who are Catholics to vote church endorsed positions, this could be a victory for Calderon.

Acapulquenos expect AMLO victory

After Mexico lost the world cup match to Argentina over the weekend, the energy had to be channeled somewhere, and in Acapulco, it has gone back to the election.

AMLOs final campaign appearance in Acapulco packed Parque Papagayo. Almost all the presidential posters in this city are for him. The three main political parties here endorse him: the Revolutionary Democratic Party which has held the mayorship for three terms, the socialist Covergencia which usually places second in local elections, and the small but powerful Trotskyite Worker Party. Neither the PRI nor the PAN have been major players in local elections for almost a decade (and the PRI lost the Guerrero governorship last year to PRD).

Enthusiasm is high, but expectations are even higher: if AMLO were to lose next Sunday, it would not be taken well.

AMLO exudes confidence

AMLO appears confident. Consider these factors.

1. He is no longer worried about answering charges or in cutting deals with Madrazo or Mercado or Campa.

2. His advertisements have gotten back to the bland one note themes of the beginning of the campaign.

3. He is no longer answering charges.

4. His attacks on Calderon this week are minimal.

5. His campaign is in familar territory which already backs him (like the big rally here in Acapulco Papagayo Park yesterday).

6. His posters emphasize the cartoon character of himself saying: Smile, we are going to win.

7. The ads for many senate and congressional candidates appear with him, presuming a coat tail effect.

On the other hand, the ads from Calderon seem to be calculating that his best chance is to get uncommitted voters wary of AMLO to get them on his side instead of that of Madrazo.

Although both AMLO and Calderon probably have access to better polling data than do I, I shall stick with my prediction: Calderon wins a very close contest next Sunday.

Calderon's 100 proposals

To the outside observer, it seems like each of the five candidates for the presidency is trying to come up with a larger number of promises. Calderon now appears to have attained the most, 100 specific items introduced in a pamphlet distributed at a recent campaign rally. However, there is a qualitative difference. The other candidates, especially AMLO talk about direct hand outs to the poor, but Calderon talks about subsidies to companies who create jobs. On other points, Calderon's proposals seem more substantive and well thought out rather than headline grabbing.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000086&sid=aNM_ubo9yhj4&refer=latin_america

The question to be answered on July 2: will the voters agree?

economic precariousness

What has amazed me is the closeness of coverage of the election in the international financial news, such as Bloomberg.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000086&sid=ayoMyHNYcrFI&refer=latin_america

The portent of a falling peso, decreased bond values, and eventual inflation are linked (at least in the minds of the international financial community) to the possible election of AMLO.

If he is not as bad as that community fears, AMLO has a great deal of convincing still left to do.

MEX PRI = U.S. DEMS = FAILURE

MEX PRI = U.S. DEMS = PROFESSIONAL POLITICIANS = FAILED PROGRAMS = LOSERS


I have spent the last few weeks in my native California and observed the recent Governor's race.


Since the days of Franklin Roosevelt and Lazaro Cardenas, the Mexican PRI and the U.S. Democrats have portrayed themselves as the party of economic opportunity for the poor. Over the decades, both of these parties developed enduring legislative majorities, and became more interested in the careers of its members than in service to its stated constituency.


Time and again these parties have nominated the most internally powerful politico rather than the most popular candidate. In 1988 this led to the defection of Cuauhtemoc Cardenas and the creation of the PRD. For this election cycle, the PRI neglected candidates with better credentials (e.g., Gordillo, Montiel) because the Madrazo, the internal power broker, wanted the power of the presidency for himself.


This week the California Democrats exhibited similar tendencies. The bright young star of gubernatorial hopeful Steve Westly was extinguished. He had great credentials on the environment, choice, and education, with only one fatal flaw. The public employee unions and Senators Boxer and Feinstein had already picked their candidate: real estate developer and fund-raising guru Phil Angelides. Westly used his personal fortune from EBay to build an early double digit lead. The campaign turned negative, most voters stayed home, but the unions brought out their rank and file, and when the dust cleared, Angelides had won. Perhaps, it is more accurate to say, Angelides got the Democrat nomination, the right to face Republican Arnold Schwartzenegger in November. Polls consistently showed Westly ahead of Schwartznegger, but Angelides trailing the incumbant governor. The Democrats shot themselves in the foot, again.


Angelides and Madrazo were powerful enough to get their parties' nominations, but will lose in an open election. As the PRI has been supplanted by the PRD, so the U.S. Democrats will be supplanted by a party that cares more about its real constituencies than its members. I am not saying that Lopez Obrador will win next month: I am still predicting his loss. Indeed, he is probably not the best representative of the PRD really serving the poor. (We have numerous homegrown examples here in Guerrero.)

The U.S. Immigration Issue: a mismanaged dance

The U.S. Congress is considering some immigration legislation. What has emerged is a dance of wrong steps and missed cues.


First, the "Minutemen" and "slock jock" radio talk show hosts have reached back into northamerican history to dip their buckets in the well of xenophobia: blame the immigrant for all problems from crime to imbalanced local budgets.


Second, there were pro-immigrant marches and a proposed boycott day both in the U.S. and Mexico. Mexicans were supposed to abstain from the roles of worker and customer at U.S. owned businesses. This approach was a mistake for several reasons. Here in Acapulco, workers showed up at WalMart and (Mexican) customers placed lunch time orders at KFC. Everytime such a protest failed to register economically, it showed its supporters as weak or disorganized. When the protests in U.S. cities commanded media attention and flew the Mexican flag or chanted revolutionary slogans ("El pueblo, unido ...") this only antagonized the right wing, and provided more propaganda sound bites and video clips.


Third, when President Fox visited several governors in the western U.S., he became the target of protests. The old stereotypes were repeated in the calls to the talk shows and letters to the editor in the local newspapers: "the illegal immigrants come here because the Mexican government is so corrupt and the Mexican economy is so bad." The media did not present the facts that the Fox administration has led Mexico to an historic peak of economic prosperity and political transparency.


Neither the U.S. public nor the Mexican public is thinking clearly or acting responsibly. Both sides should subdue their anger with another emotion: that of gratitude. Northamericans should be grateful for the immigrants who pick their fruit, clean their homes, mow their lawns, watch their children, construct their buildings, and prepare their meals. Mexican immigrants should be grateful for a host country that provides decent wages and schools for their children. Immigration has occurred, and been tolerated, because it is beneficial for both sides. The time has come to make it safe and orderly for both sides.


Fox and Bush have poll numbers that have gone up and down, and the measure of their greatness has been their ability to stay the course on unpopular policies and resist popular pressures. If both publics could be more grateful, and more quiet, perhaps their responsible heads of state could sit down and negotiate a just and mutually advantageous pact. The U.S. government could provide a systematic safe passage for Mexican migrants, and an orderly transfer for elementary school children. Reciprocally, the U.S. could ask local tuition rates for American students in Mexican medical schools and for easier access to the I.M.S.S. medical care for gabacho retirees.

SECOND DEBATE: AMLO too little too late

This week's debate will do nothing to change the outcome of next month's election. No candidate was stellar. Leftist candidates Lopez Obrador and Patricia Mercado failed to gain traction. Madrazo and Campa bickered, but Calderon still looked the most presidential and unperturbed. The trends set in motion in the last debate will continue, and Calderon will win.

So who won the debate?

Here is a summary of post debate from polling data, courtesy of Yo Propongo newsletter.

Medio informativo Felipe Calderón Andrés López Roberto Madrazo Paticia Mercado Roberto Campa Reforma 44% 30% 11% 3% 2% El economista 65.8% 19.4% 9.3% 5.5% 0% La crónica 42% 29% nd 8% nd Excélsior 35% 35% 27% 3% 1% Diario Monitor 36.95% 56.42% 3.33% 1.36% 1.94%